AFK Football

It seems like all you hear about when you mention Frank Gore’s name is Mike Martz. In PPR leagues that’s a boon, especially with a guy who’s already had a season of 60+ grabs. Even in a down-year in ’07, Gore still managed to combine for 1,500 yards, 50 grabs and 6 touchdowns. Compare those with Marshall Faulk’s numbers in Indianapolis and it’s easy to pretend that Gore’s ’08 will repeat Faulk’s ’99. If you believe the hype, it would be easy to take Gore in the top5 overall.

But that’s if you believe the hype. 2006 and 2007 were not kind to Martz, or his running backs. Entire games would go by with 20 yards rushing against low-ranked run defenses. You might hear the argument that those years were abberations because they were spent with weak running backs in Kevin Jones and Tatum Bell. The natural corrolary is that Frank Gore is a vast improvement and will be statistically huge. Sure, Tatum Bell isn’t Frank Gore, but Gore isn’t Faulk either. On top of that, Gore had ankle issues all last season, and he remains the only standout offensive weapon on the 49ers, despite the free agency signings of Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson. 

I’ve ranked Gore in the top10 because I believe he has the potential to be either huge or hugely disappointing. The 49ers schedule is soft, and if there is a reliable quarterback guiding the offense to take pressure off Gore, and if he stays healthy, there will be opportunities in every direction. But the O-line still needs improvement, and that passing game is more likely to fail than to succeed. So temper your expectations, this pick could either carry or bury you.

Also – 3 to 2 odds that the guy in your league who drafts him references Mike Martz. Entertainment purposes only.

I’ve blown up Willis McGahee in this spot before and don’t need to repeat myself. If the Baltimore offense proves to be Harbaugh a la Andy Reid, he’s going to be a PPR stud. If the offense comes out firing like Cam Cameron’s, he’s going to be a PPR stud. That means he’s going to be a PPR stud. There’s just no other option.

Add to that the drafting of Joe Flacco and the decisions that come with an offense in transition – How long do they run Boller? When does the kid get the call? If he’s in, will it be mostly checkdowns? Etc. – and you get to an easy solution. Force-feed the run, dump pass, swing pass, and screen pass. 

To this effect the Ravens are going to need more than McGahee alone, and so they picked up Ray Rice in the draft while watching Musa Smith leave. He should spell McGahee enough to keep both backs fresh. Rice still has development to do though, particularly in pass blocking, and won’t be a threat to getting every down carries.

In all 12-team PPR drafts this year McGahee should be a first-round selection. I’m ranking him high enough so that he will be.

If history repeats itself, and it does, seasons following high quarterback and wide receiver production tend to favor running backs. Call it the zebras way of correcting things. 2004, for example, saw 49 TDs from Peyton Manning. And 2005 saw 28 total TDs from Shaun Alexander with LaDanian Tomlinson trailing him at 20 total. I don’t have Nostradamus on speed dial, but I think this year might be the same. MBIII has been a punishing runner for a couple years, and seems to benefit from having a second back in the backfield to take off every-down pressure. Even with Felix Jones present, he’ll continue to get the goal-line totes. Those are more important than a few receptions and yards he might lose to the Razorback turned Cowboy.

Being on the Cowboys doesn’t hurt either. Although their schedule has some tough matchups this year against the AFC North, that hasn’t been a challenge in the past. Additionally, Barber doesn’t have the injury history of some other backs that would be considered in this range, and that’s a compelling reason to grab him here.
In 2008, Marion Barber III should continue to progress into the spotlight and blaze away this year, making him well worth a top10 pick.

Offensive lineman can play with broken hands. Running backs can have twisted ankles taped. Even safeties like Polamalu can suffer a concussion and still come back hitting. But one injury that no one wants to hear about is one to the knee. And that’s just the part that Peyton Manning had surgery on. On Monday afternoon Manning had an infected bursa sac removed from his knee.

Although he’s set to return in 4 to 6 weeks, this is going to cast a pall over his fantasy draft stock. He was already dropping after a mediocre (for P.M.) year last year while being outshined by Brady, add to that a knee surgery, missed training camps, preseason games, a question of whether he’ll play Week 1, and you’ve got a recipe for him to fall deep into the 2nd round of 12 team leagues. Maybe even the 3rd.

So will he return and provide good value? Well, he’ll return Peyton Manning. But one thing Manning relies on is his quick hopping feet when he’s in the pocket. Sure all he has to do is drop back and throw, but if that hopping is causing him pain it’s going to hamper his accuracy, focus, and deep throws. Any doubt and just look at the last two marquee QB’s with knee issues (Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb) who had mild years following their procedures. When you look at the Colts strength of schedule this year, that’s a bad combination. If he drops to the middle third, snatch him up because the last half of the year you’ll be happy to have him. Otherwise, you may want to pass in the second round and look at Tony Romo or Drew Brees as quality #2 overall QB options to Brady.

Steven Jackson wins this pick , although there are a lot of reasons to go elsewhere with this spot. The Rams line is still weak, Jackson has injury questions, Bulger has injury questions, the team sucked last year, etc. All the same, he is 25 and only one year removed from one of the most productive PPR seasons to date. The Rams face the AFC West twice, the AFC East, and the NFC East. Due to last year’s last-place finish in their division, they also play the Falcons and the Bears. That’s some serious production potential.

The problem is this guy missed 4 games last year because of a groin pull, and he’s sitting during the offseason with a slight groin pull. He’s already twisted an ankle. And those two dings are in practices without pads. Picking a guy with an injury history like that is one thing when he’s healthy and behind a good line. But Jackson is going to get hit and hit hard this year.

Despite those knocks, it’s still a contract year for Jackson, and if he can stay healthy all season he’s got the skills to be #1 overall. Draft high, but draft with caution.

Joseph Addai was partly responsible for losing me my playoffs last season. I drafted him in nearly all leagues for his Week 16 matchup with the Oakland Raiders, and he consequently sucked in that game. Curse you JA!

Until then though, he scored 15 TDs and presented himself as a decent fantasy option getting 41 grabs. Addai is on one of the league’s top offenses, behind a strong line, but has an awfully tough schedule. With recent news that Peyton Manning had knee surgery he should be even more the focus of the offense. He’s had one more offseason to condition himself to play in the NFL, which should help because while in his rookie year he came on in the stretch, last season his production dropped drastically in the second half.

Don’t count on that happening again. The Colts are changing, and Joseph Addai and Anthony Gonzalez are the new faces to pay attention to. There may be other backs with better histories, or guys that got far more combined yardage than Addai last season, but none share the productive offense that Joe is a part of. Until his team or position changes, Addai will mean touchdowns.

Call me crazy for not jumping on the “ADP” loveboat, but this guy just isn’t proven. On top of that his injury history reads like a Stephen King novel for fantasy owners who take him in the Top5. Sure his rookie season gave us fantastic expectations for his sophomore campaign, but so did Kevin Jones’. While there are those who’ll point out the “freak” nature of his various injuries as a way of suggesting that it’s just bad luck, I’m not sold. Reckless running leads to crazy injuries. Add to that a knee injury last season and a couple games where he ran like a stubbed toe, and you’ve got Chad Johnson’s inconsistency with a side of Donovan McNabb’s health.

Of course there are positives, or else Purple Jesus would be nowhere near the top. The Vikings line is as strong as any in football, and behind the left side I’m pretty sure I could average 3 yards a carry. They play in a weak division and have a defense that with the addition of Jared Allen can stop almost any offense. They’ve signed Bernard Berrian to have a deep threat that will balance the run, and all reports about Tarvaris Jackson this offseason are strong. This team is a contender in a still-weak NFC Central.

However more than any other fantasy sport, football depends on your first few rounds coming through. Whiff on your top four picks and it probably won’t matter how well you do in the later rounds. Just ask anyone who took Shaun Alexander #2 in ‘06, or Larry Johnson, or Stephen Jackson at #2 in ‘07. Purple Jesus could be great, and in fact he could lead the league in rushing if he finds his consistency and stays healthy, but I’m ranking him low enough so that I’ll never have to take that risk. It also means I won’t have to use a 7th round pick on Chester Taylor. That’s a win-win.

Adrian Peterson’s turn will come, but not for now. This is a points-per-reception format, and it’s impossible to ignore a guy who consistently hits 70+ catches and 2,000 total yards. His touchdown total will never hit near 20 because of Andy Reid’s offense, but it’s that same offense that ensures he’s always a PPR stud. While the NFC East is tough this year, it was tough last year when he averaged 159.6 total yards, 8.2 receptions, and a TD per game in 5 games. With his final two games against NFC East opponents, that’s a great average to bring into playoff territory.

The two major knocks on Westbrook are the same every year. He’s the Eagles main offensive threat so teams will work to bottle him up, and he’s always seeming to be hurting somewhere. The first angle is just wrong. Westbrook is too dynamic to be stopped even when defenses know where he’s going. The second criticism does hold some water. Westbrook will be 29 this year, and every year he seems to miss a game or two.

Still, with matchups against the Rams, Bengals, Falcons and Browns and no marquee WR deal in sight, Westbrook should have a shot at a career year. If you’re willing to ride the wave, Westy will bring you to new fantasy shores.

Randy Moss has been accused of taking plays off. In fact, it would be safe to wager that he took 2005 and 2006 off. Clearly the rest helped, as Moss broke Jerry Rice’s long-standing touchdown record in 2007 (though not beating Rice’s pace per game). This offseason in a coaches poll done by ESPN, Moss was voted by 3 coaches to be the smartest player in the game. You don’t get voted the smartest if you can’t produce.

While Moss may not repeat 23 touchdowns, he certainly will continue to be Brady’s top target. He’s only missed games in two seasons, and both of those were the year he left a team he visibly didn’t care about. The Patriots will persist as a contender in 2008 and moss will be a big part of it. They again face one of the league’s easiest schedules, and this year they have a bad memory to erase. You can look for Moss to repeat his standing as the number one wide receiver in the NFL.

This year more than ever in recent memory, the running back position is up in the air and wide receivers seem the only predictable source of success. Moss might not wind up #2 overall in a PPR format, but he’ll wind up Top10, and that’s enough safety to vault him above all but one running back.

Too many countdowns do just that - count down. While there might be some intrigue in the positioning of the top picks, we pretty much all know who those players will be. Doing a rankings set in the other direction, well that may be different. I’ll be basing these rankings on predicted 2008 production only in a standard scoring format with one point per reception.

We start with L.T. While his production last year didn’t hit 2006 numbers, and was overshadowed by Brady and Moss’s accomplishments, L.T. is still the consensus #1. His knee injury at the end of the year last year was concerning, though. His history of never getting hurt has now been blemished. Plus it’s a knee, and he’s a running back getting older. That isn’t a good combination.

Concerns about LT’s knees have to be offset by the departure of Michael Turner, the improvement of the Chargers passing game, the cupcake soft schedule he faces this year, and his week 15, 16, and 17 (read: playoff) schedule against the Chiefs, Bucs, and Broncos.  Plus, the guy seems capable of putting up 20 touchdowns year in and year out and he’s a PPR dynamo.

Still, temper the excitement. This isn’t like having the #1 pick last year. LT is no longer invincible.